Testing a mathematical derivation of climate sensitivity


Testing a mathematical derivation of climate sensitivity

I aim to show that energy balance models which assume high equilibrium sensitivity
( A ) like the ones in the text overstate the sensitivity of the current climate state by a factor of 3-4 over an empirically derived sensitivity and that the sensitivity given below at ( B ) is more appropriate for the current CAGW debate.

Climate sensitivity to insolation changes appears to be 0.8 +/- 0.2 under ice-albedo
feedback, and exhibits highest sensitivity at the positive going transition stage. This sensitivity would give a temp rise for CO2 doubling in line with IPCC lower estimates.

ΔT=ΔF*λ = 3.7*0.8 +/-0.2 of ΔT = 2.95 +/- 0.8 °C with a range 2.2 – 3.7 °C ( A )

Conversely temperatures above the Tref = 0°C Vostok value indicate low sensitivity and
greater stability with an inferred sensitivity of      λ = 0.25 +/-0.05 ( B )

This would give a temp rise of 0.8°C +/- 0.2°C for a further doubling of CO2 to 800ppm

Mike Davies
Madmike@ https://madmikedavies.wordpress.com/

Junceira, Portugal

Full paper Testing a mathematical derivation of climate sensitivity

Advertisements

About madmikedavies

Retired Communications Engineer, living in Portugal. Interests are Cosmology, Earth Sciences, Organic farming, Climatology, Football, Golf, Birdwatching, and Dogs
This entry was posted in Climate change. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s