Testing a mathematical derivation of climate sensitivity
I aim to show that energy balance models which assume high equilibrium sensitivity
( A ) like the ones in the text overstate the sensitivity of the current climate state by a factor of 3-4 over an empirically derived sensitivity and that the sensitivity given below at ( B ) is more appropriate for the current CAGW debate.
Climate sensitivity to insolation changes appears to be 0.8 +/- 0.2 under ice-albedo
feedback, and exhibits highest sensitivity at the positive going transition stage. This sensitivity would give a temp rise for CO2 doubling in line with IPCC lower estimates.
ΔT=ΔF*λ = 3.7*0.8 +/-0.2 of ΔT = 2.95 +/- 0.8 °C with a range 2.2 – 3.7 °C ( A )
Conversely temperatures above the Tref = 0°C Vostok value indicate low sensitivity and
greater stability with an inferred sensitivity of λ = 0.25 +/-0.05 ( B )
This would give a temp rise of 0.8°C +/- 0.2°C for a further doubling of CO2 to 800ppm