**Testing a mathematical derivation of climate sensitivity**

I aim to show that energy balance models which assume high equilibrium sensitivity

( A ) like the ones in the text overstate the sensitivity of the current climate state by a factor of 3-4 over an empirically derived sensitivity and that the sensitivity given below at ( B ) is more appropriate for the current CAGW debate.

Climate sensitivity to insolation changes appears to be 0.8 +/- 0.2 under ice-albedo

feedback, and exhibits highest sensitivity at the positive going transition stage. This sensitivity would give a temp rise for CO2 doubling in line with IPCC lower estimates.

**ΔT=ΔF*λ = 3.7*0.8 +/-0.2 of ****ΔT** = 2.95 +/- 0.8 °C with a range 2.2 – 3.7 °C ( A )

Conversely temperatures above the **Tref = 0°C Vostok** value indicate low sensitivity and

greater stability with an inferred sensitivity of **λ = 0.25 +/-0.05 ( B )**

This would give a temp rise of **0.8°C +/- 0.2°C** for a further doubling of **CO2 to 800ppm**

Mike Davies

Madmike@ https://madmikedavies.wordpress.com/

Junceira, Portugal

Full paper Testing a mathematical derivation of climate sensitivity

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## About madmikedavies

Retired Communications Engineer, living in Portugal.
Interests are Cosmology, Earth Sciences, Organic farming, Climatology, Football,
Golf, Birdwatching, and Dogs