Climate sensitivity and forcing 1

This post is incomplete a full post will be appended, below is a comment I made on another blog


             I was researching climate sensitivity for a post on my blog when I came accross your site.

I have scanned most of your climate pieces and in principle I am in agreement with all of your conclusions. My newpiece not yet published will make the following claims.

The IPCC sensitivity given in Wikipedia is erroneous.

(‘The computed climate sensitivity is therefore 5/7.1 = 0.7 K(W/m2)−1. We can use this empirically derived climate sensitivity to predict the temperature rise from a forcing of 4 W/m2, arising from a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 from pre-industrial levels.’) which predicts temp rise of 3 degC

My Initial analysis.

During glacial epochs the climate sensitivity alters and is at its highest during transitions between glacials/interglacials when it approaches 1 and is > 0.5 during 90 kyr glacial phase.

Prior to 1 Myr climate sensitivity was <0.5 and prior to 3 Myr climate sensitivity was =/<0.2. This can be gleaned by critically examining the 5 Myr temperature graph on Wikipedia. Examination also shows that temperature sensitivity increases after the Vostok equivalent temp falls below 0 degC and I believe is related to ice sheet dynamics. It is also probable that above 0 deg C VEq C02 controls the sensitivity, such that rising C02 levels will reduce climate sensitivity to <0.1 and will oppose forcing from other sources.

Also since the younger dryas total climate sensitivity seems to have stabilised at < 0.2 which would gives a a temp rise of <1 deg C for C02 doubling.

         These calculations are based on an unrepeatable experiment recorded in ice cores and rocks. The earth itself is the most accurate GCM

Mike Davies


About madmikedavies

Retired Communications Engineer, living in Portugal. Interests are Cosmology, Earth Sciences, Organic farming, Climatology, Football, Golf, Birdwatching, and Dogs
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