Climate sensitivity and forcing 1


This post is incomplete a full post will be appended, below is a comment I made on another blog

Shaviv,

             I was researching climate sensitivity for a post on my blog when I came accross your site.

http://www.sciencebits.com/comment/reply/218#comment-form

I have scanned most of your climate pieces and in principle I am in agreement with all of your conclusions. My newpiece not yet published will make the following claims.

The IPCC sensitivity given in Wikipedia is erroneous.

(‘The computed climate sensitivity is therefore 5/7.1 = 0.7 K(W/m2)−1. We can use this empirically derived climate sensitivity to predict the temperature rise from a forcing of 4 W/m2, arising from a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 from pre-industrial levels.’) which predicts temp rise of 3 degC

My Initial analysis.

During glacial epochs the climate sensitivity alters and is at its highest during transitions between glacials/interglacials when it approaches 1 and is > 0.5 during 90 kyr glacial phase.

Prior to 1 Myr climate sensitivity was <0.5 and prior to 3 Myr climate sensitivity was =/<0.2. This can be gleaned by critically examining the 5 Myr temperature graph on Wikipedia. Examination also shows that temperature sensitivity increases after the Vostok equivalent temp falls below 0 degC and I believe is related to ice sheet dynamics. It is also probable that above 0 deg C VEq C02 controls the sensitivity, such that rising C02 levels will reduce climate sensitivity to <0.1 and will oppose forcing from other sources.

Also since the younger dryas total climate sensitivity seems to have stabilised at < 0.2 which would gives a a temp rise of <1 deg C for C02 doubling.

         These calculations are based on an unrepeatable experiment recorded in ice cores and rocks. The earth itself is the most accurate GCM

Mike Davies

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About madmikedavies

Retired Communications Engineer, living in Portugal. Interests are Cosmology, Earth Sciences, Organic farming, Climatology, Football, Golf, Birdwatching, and Dogs
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