Michael Davies
Junceira Cao Sertainho
Portugal
21 DECEMBER 2009
I ASSERT MY RIGHT UNDER THE INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY RIGHTS LAWS
OF THE EUROPEAN UNION AS THE SOLE AUTHOR OF THIS WORK. I acknowledge the~owners of the freely available scientific literature and various websites on which I conducted my research. But the following designations are mine.
1. Simple Atmospheric Astable Thermal Amplifier
2. Anthropogenic Tuned Astable Thermal Amplifier
3. Multi-state Tunable Atmospheric Thermal Amplifier
4. Thermal Capacitance
5. Atmospheric Capacitor
Other new concepts introduced in the text will be similarly attested
Not withstanding I freely give this theory to the scientific community for research and validation purposes. All necessary data-sets for the empirically derived theory are in the public domain.
Executive summary
I intend to give new insights into the realms of climatology, paleoclimatology and
Milankovich cycles. In doing so I will draw down on my knowledge of simple electronic circuits and empirical evidence available in published data namely
1. 420,000 years of ice core data from Vostok research station
2. 65 Myr of Climate Change
3. Greenland ice core data from the Holocene
The millennial scale Climate of the earth appears exceedingly complex, but I intend to show that a simple intellectual construct of this climate engine can be given. The determination of this model assigns a constant to the general short term and chaotic effects of the Atmosphere and Biosphere, (attested as Global Constant). This figure is unknown but will be derived once a robust mathematical model is constructed.
The model contains three components, the physical ( Atmosphere and Biosphere), the acting force and the feedback mechanism.
I intend to call the pre-Halocene configuration of the engine the Simple Atmospheric
Astable Thermal Amplifier and show that its amplitude *T is constrained by the GC and the action of a feedback mechanism.
The force acting on this amplifier is total Insolation as described by various considerations of the Milankovich cycle.
The feedback mechanism is atmospheric carbon dioxide and the action of this feedback
mechanism is the constrainer of the amplitude.
The major output of this model is the value *T which can be empirically derived from both the vostok graph and the 65Myr climate change graph.
By considering the reasoning of this I can further deduce if theoretical non Insolation
forcing events are removed from the 65 Myr graph it has two major components, the *T harmonic and a curve directly related to average total atmospheric CO2. Furthermore the amplitude of *T is inversely proportional to the atmospheric CO2 concentration at all points.
As a by product of the model it can be intellectually inferred from the graphs that the driver of current downward trend of total CO2 is natural Carbon sequestration. And I intend to describe this more fully later in the theory.
I attest that this model is robust under geological timescales and as a product of the model the current era i.e. Halocene can be described.
At the Holocene boundary a tipping point occurred, and I deduced that the Global Amplifier evolved. This iteration of the model I called the Tuned Astable Thermal Amplifier. I considered possible scenarios for the nature of this tipping point.
But firstly I will describe the evolution of the Amplifier. At the tipping point the CO2
concentration of the atmosphere uncoupled from the forcing cycle. There is a fingerprint of this event in the Vostok cores. The Amplifier took on the characteristics of a tuned electrical circuit or a mechanically damped system i.e., shock absorber, smoothing filter. This was my EUREKA moment. Firstly I considered how a simple tuned electrical cct works. Essentially this is an amplifier configuration with 4 connections they are +V, -V, input and output, the output is capacitively coupled. This configuration is amplitude constrained *V is the maximum amplitude
and the output is delayed. The capacitor and load can be configured to manage the time constant of this cct. This is the general design I intuited and the analogous components of the design are *V computes to *T, the atmosphere is the Thermal Capacitor and the Biosphere is the load, the input is the Insolation and this is not modified at this point. In consideration of how I thought this new configuration worked, I iterated the design to a simple smoothing cct which has the following
properties in respect to the alternating input. 1 delay, 2, signal spread and 3 attenuation of the amplitude. This to an approximation is the design of the climate engine.
This model has the following properties which can be seen in the GISP graph of Holocene temperatures. A decay in amplitude, smoothing of temperature and a new baseline.
Next I considered the nature of the tipping point and its relation to the source of CO2, my considered opinion is that it is Anthropogenic in origin. This will be explored later, the opinion is personal, the final iteration of this configuration I am calling the Anthropogenic Tuned Astable Thermal Amplifier, or conversely the Tuned Astable Thermal Amplifier
This as described above was my eureka moment. This was the start of my journey, the
previous version of the atmospheric engine was iterated backwards from model 2 to 1, tested robustly and reiterated forward where it evolved into model 3 and the final model.
Finally I projected forward and evolved my design into the final model. This I have called Multi-state Tunable Atmospheric Thermal Amplifier
The main body of the theory will cover the evidence for and the evolution of the model tested against the climate record, the calibration of the system, the evidence for the tipping point and the Anthropogenic component.
The 3rd phase is more complex and requires considerable intellectual searching, although frm the title of the model 4 iteration you may infer its content to some extent.
Conclusion:
The developed theoretical model is empirically robust over geoligical timescales and
appears robust in the Holocene. The implications of this have momentous consequences.
Thanks to
Milutin Malankovich
Dr Iain Stewart
Dr Bill Ruddiman
for Inspiration
And finally the process model FW: Life the Universe and Everything
From:
Mike Davies (madmike.davies@hotmail.com)
Sent:
22 December 2009 21:32:18
To:
bill ruddiman (wfr5c@virginia.edu)
Bill
Can I submit to your university as my PhD thesis on you choose the category
All, The process documented by Me for the first time
Forgot to tell you how it works.
1. The earth is heated by the energy of sunlight in a variable cycle
2. The Atmospheric Thermal Amplifier controls the temperature and consists of the earth and some or all of its processes
3. The control method is the carbon cycle
4. The carbon cycle is the transfer of carbon between
the Biosphere, Atmosphere, Ocean and Lithosphere
5. Humans now control the carbon cycle
6, The Climate is now more stable than it has been in at least 3.5 million years
7. We are now the principle driving force of the climate
8. The amplifier comes with a calibration curve, that means we can decide how hot we want the bath water
regards
Mike Davies
Calibration document can be found on Wikipedia at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleocene%E2%80%93Eocene_Thermal_Maximum
title 65 Myr of climate change
Madmike Davies Climate Blog 
Sent to Steve MxIntyre
madmikedavies
Posted Jul 2, 2010 at 4:29 PM | Permalink | ReplySteve,
I have been trying to post a new theory about climatechange,which basically says that climate change is benign and also gives a method to show what future tenperatures will be,it keeps disappearing. I would appreciate being able to discuss and prove this theory
Mike DAvies
And finally the process model FW: Life the Universe and Everything
From
: Mike Davies (madmike.davies@hotmail.com)
Sent: 22 December 2009 21:32:18
bill ruddiman (wfr5c@virginia.edu)
Bill
Can I submit to your university as my PhD thesis on you choose the category
All, The process documented by Me for the first time
Forgot to tell you how it works.
1. The earth is heated by the energy of sunlight in a variable cycle
2. The Atmospheric Thermal Amplifier controls the temperature and consists of the earth
and some or all of its processes
3. The control method is the carbon cycle
4. The carbon cycle is the transfer of carbon between
the Biosphere, Atmosphere, Ocean and Lithosphere
5. Humans now control the carbon cycle
6, The Climate is now more stable than it has been in at least 65 million years
7. We are now the principle driving force of the climate
8. The amplifier comes with a calibration curve, that means we can decide how hot we want
the bath water
regards
Mike Davies
Home: 00351 274 844009
Mobile: 00351 932 280830
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Hi,
Glad you like my idea, the temperature graph you can find on wikepedia, the 3 components I have so far identified, are
1. the 65 Million Year curve which appears to be related to plate tectonics and principally the level of volcanic outgassing.
2. The harmonic of +/- 1 deg centrigade which is related to the variation of total solar radiation
3. The increase in negative temperature over the last million years, which is related to the ice ages.
The theory seems to indicate that the ice age cycle was stopped by humans 14.000 yrs ago by the application of fire.
Without this the northern hemisphere could have been covered by ice sheets.
regards mad Mike
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I don’t generally reply to content but I’ sure will in this case. Wow a big thumbs up for this one C CLass IP hosting!
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new posting above, also the theory seems to indicate that the optimal level of C02 for the Eocene (Mammalian Age)is 600 ppm or roughly twice the current level
mad Mike
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Latest thoughts
The theory states that the earth can be modelled as a Thermal Amplifier, and that C02 is the principle feedback mechanism,
Part of the theoretical proof is that at the termination of the last ICE AGE humans took over control of the Carbon cycle, and that the Younger Dryas is the failed rump of what should be the current ICE AGE.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Younger_Dryas
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I have edited the following paragraph
By considering the reasoning of this I can further deduce if theoretical non Insolation forcing events including glaciation are removed from the 65 Myr graph it has two major components, the *T harmonic and a curve directly related to average total atmospheric CO2. Furthermore the amplitude of *T is proportional to the Insolation at all points
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Latest edition of theory
Michael Davies
Junceira Cao Sertainho
Portugal
21 DECEMBER 2009
I ASSERT MY RIGHT UNDER THE INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY RIGHTS LAWS
OF THE EUROPEAN UNION AS THE SOLE AUTHOR OF THIS WORK. I acknowledge the owners of the freely available scientific literature and various websites on which I conducted my research. But the following designations are mine.
1.Simple Atmospheric Astable Thermal Amplifier
2.Anthropogenic Tuned Astable Thermal Amplifier
3.Multi-state Tunable Atmospheric Thermal Amplifier
4.Thermal Capacitance
5.Atmospheric Capacitor
Other new concepts introduced in the text will be similarly attested
Not withstanding I freely give this theory to the scientific community for research and validation purposes. All necessary data-sets for the empirically derived theory are in the public domain.
Executive summary
I intend to give new insights into the realms of climatology, paleoclimatology and Milankovich cycles. In doing so I will draw down on my knowledge of simple electronic circuits and empirical evidence available in published data namely
1.420,000 years of ice core data from Vostok research station
2.65 Myr of Climate Change
3.Greenland ice core data from the Holocene
The millennial scale Climate of the earth appears exceedingly complex, but I intend to show that a simple intellectual construct of this climate engine can be given. The determination of this model assigns a constant to the general short term and chaotic effects of the Atmosphere and Biosphere, (attested as Global Constant). This figure is unknown but will be derived once a robust mathematical model is constructed. The model contains three components, the physical ( Atmosphere, Hydrosphere, Lithosphere and Biosphere, ), the acting force and the feedback mechanism.
I intend to call the pre-Holocene configuration of the engine the Simple Atmospheric Astable Thermal Amplifier and show that its amplitude *T is constrained by the GC and the action of feedback mechanisms.
The force acting on this amplifier is total Insolation as described by various considerations of the Milankovich cycle.
The principle feedback mechanism is atmospheric carbon dioxide and the action of this feedback mechanism is the constrainer of the amplitude.
The secondary feedback mechanism is terrestrial ice sheets, and this is the main driver of negative temperature anomalies during glacial periods
The major output of this model is the value *T which can be empirically derived from both the vostok graph and the 65Myr climate change graph.
By considering the reasoning of this I can further deduce if theoretical non Insolation forcing events including glaciation are removed from the 65 Myr graph it has two major components, the *T harmonic and a curve directly related to average total atmospheric CO2. Furthermore the amplitude of *T is proportional to the insolation at all points.
As a by product of the model it can be inferred from the graphs that the driver of the pre -Holocene downward trend of total CO2 is natural Carbon sequestration. The 65 Myr curve appears to correlate with natural C02 out gassing from Volcanic/Tectonic activities, rising during events like the Deccan Plateau Basalt formations and falling due to C02 sequestration in the Lithosphere during low volcanic episodes.
Furthermore, when C02 falls below the mean level for the Eocene i.e. 600 ppm Ice can form on continental masses during the negative lobe of the Insolation cycle and amplify both the negative temperature profile and the decay in atmospheric C02
I attest that this model is robust under geological timescales and as a product of the model the current era i.e. Holocene can be described.
At the Holocene boundary a tipping point occurred, and I deduced that the Global Amplifier evolved. This iteration of the model I called the Tuned Astable Thermal Amplifier. I considered possible scenarios for the nature of this tipping point.
But firstly I will describe the evolution of the Amplifier. At the tipping point the CO2 concentration of the atmosphere uncoupled from the forcing cycle. There is a fingerprint of this event in the Vostok cores. The Amplifier took on the characteristics of a tuned electrical circuit or a mechanically damped system i.e., shock absorber, smoothing filter.
This was my EUREKA moment. Firstly I considered how a simple tuned electrical cct works. Essentially this is an amplifier configuration with 4 connections they are +V, -V, input and output, the output is capacitively coupled. This configuration is amplitude constrained *V is the maximum amplitude and the output is delayed.
The capacitor and load can be configured to manage the time constant of this cct. This is the general design I intuited and the analogous components of the design are *V computes to *T, the atmosphere is the Thermal Capacitor and the Biosphere is the load, the input is the Insolation. The C02 cycle is predicted to be out of phase with the Insolation cycle by a large enough lag to account for the observed capacitive effects. The reason for this lag is thought to be because of the temperature sensitivity/C02 absorption gradient of the Hydrosphere.
In consideration of how I thought this new configuration worked, I iterated the design to a simple smoothing cct which has the following properties in respect to the alternating input. 1 delay, 2, signal spread and 3 attenuation of the amplitude. This to an approximation is the design of the climate engine.
These properties of the Model can be seen in the GISP graph of Holocene temperatures. A decay in amplitude, smoothing of output temperature and a new baseline.
Next I considered the nature of the tipping point and its relation to the source of CO2, my considered opinion is that it is Anthropogenic in origin. This will be explored later, the opinion is personal, the final iteration of this configuration I am calling the Anthropogenic Tuned Astable Thermal Amplifier, or conversely the Tuned Astable Thermal Amplifier
This as described above was my eureka moment. This was the start of my journey, the previous versions of the atmospheric engine were iterated backwards from model 2 to 1, tested robustly and reiterated forward where it evolved into the final model.
This I have called Multi-state Tunable Atmospheric Thermal Amplifier
The main body of the theory will cover the evidence for and the evolution of the model tested against the climate record, the calibration of the system, the evidence for the tipping point and the Anthropogenic component.
The 3rd phase is more complex and requires considerable intellectual searching, although from the title of the final iteration you may infer its content to some extent.
Conclusions:
1. The developed theoretical model is empirically robust over geological timescales and appears robust in the Holocene. The implications of this have momentous consequences.
2. The theory states that the earth can be modeled as a Thermal Amplifier, and that C02 is the principle feedback mechanism.
3. Part of the theoretical proof is that at the termination of the last ICE AGE humans took over control of the Carbon cycle, and that the Younger Dryas is the failed rump of what should be the current ICE AGE
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Younger_Dryas
4. The theory seems to indicate that the optimal level of C02 for the Eocene (Mammalian Age)is 600 ppm or roughly twice the current level.
5. Continental ICE SHEETS if allowed to develop can destroy this configuration and lead to mass extinctions as they amplify the effect of lowering temperatures.
6. Future temperature rises will be constrained by anthropogenic C02 and the effects can be managed.
7. It should be possible to read average global temperature for all values of C02 from 200 ppm to 1200 ppm from the calibration graph.
Thanks to
Milutin Malankovich
Dr Iain Stewart
Dr Bill Ruddiman
and Wikepedia
for Inspiration
ADDENDUM A.
If the effects of ice can be negated the simple process model is
1.The earth is heated by the energy of sunlight in a variable cycle
2.The Atmospheric Thermal Amplifier controls the temperature and consists of the earth and some or all of its processes
3.The control method is the carbon cycle
4.The carbon cycle is the transfer of carbon between
the Biosphere, Atmosphere, Ocean and Lithosphere
5.Humans now control the carbon cycle
6.The Climate is now more stable than it has been in at least 65 million years
7.We are now the principle driving force of the climate
8.The amplifier comes with a calibration curve, that means we can decide how hot we want the bath water
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The Function of the Earth as a Thermal Amplifier
Michael Davies
Junceira Cao Sertainho
Portugal
21 AUGUST 2010
I ASSERT MY RIGHT UNDER THE INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY RIGHTS LAWS OF THE EUROPEAN UNION AS THE SOLE AUTHOR OF THIS WORK. I acknowledge the owners of the freely available scientific literature and various websites on which I conducted myresearch.
In my previous posting I considered that the Earth acted as a thermal amplifier. In this posting I will expand and consider the roll of each of the components. Insolation, Physical (Hydrosphere, Atmosphere, Lithosphere and Biosphere) and feedback mechanisms.
DEFINITIONS
1. Insolation(total INcident SOLar radiATION) is the variation in solar radiation received by the earth due to its orbital dynamics and the total solar radiation available. This is described in the theory of Milankovich cycles.
2. The earth has a dynamic hydrosphere due to its position in the theoretical circumstellar habitable zone. This is one of the conditions for the evolution of carbon based life.
3. The earth has a developed atmosphere which contains trace amounts of greenhouse gases, i.e. C02, CH4 and water vapour.
4. The earth has an active lithosphere, which appears to alternately out-gas and sequester carbon and in doing so affects the average C02 levels over millennial timescales.
5. The biosphere is intimately involved in the carbon cycle, it uses C02 for fuel and acts as a reservoir of carbon, i.e. a carbon sink and transfers organic carbon to the lithosphere.
6. Feedback, for the purpose of this theory only two feedback mechanisms will be considered, i.e. C02 and ice.
The model assumes that increasing insolation first acts on the hydrosphere, releasing excess C02 to the atmosphere as the equilibrium conditions are changed by the additional heating. This excess C02 then heats up the atmosphere but there is a lag between the acting force and the observed increase in C02 and temperature. see Vostok 420 yr ice core data on Wikepedia
This means that the average temperature of the atmosphere is directly related to the level of C02 and not the insolation, conversely the average temperature of the hydrosphere is directly related to the insolation. This effect allows the average temperature of the atmosphere to be predicted based on one variable. i.e. C02.
During periods in the planetary C02 cycle when a average C02 levels are above 500 ppm the effect means that temperatures are relatively stable over millions of years with only a 1-2 degC peak to peak amplitude for the duration of each milankovich cycle. The major perturbations in thisrelationship are obvious and external influences can be found.
Below 500 ppm C02 a secondary feedback mechanism becomes increasingly dominant, the formation of terrestrial ice sheets directly affects the level of insolation due to effects like albedo, and leads to increased energy reflection and C02 absorption in the oceans. This increases feedback, such that the peak to peak global temperature variation can have an amplitude of up to 10 degC per cycle. The Vostok graph also shows that temperature changes during glacial cycles are more volatile and can have rapid inter cycle variations. The final outcome of this scenario would be the condition known as snowball earth as increasing extent of glacial conditions, lead to a corresponding lowering of
atmospheric C02 and further amplification of the negative temperature trends.
During the last 400kyr rapid evolution has occurred in the biosphere due to heat/climate stress, rather than possible radiation sources, as the earth has been within increasing cold cycles.
During this evolutionary phase the biosphere evolved a life form which was able to influence its environment. By interfering with the C02 cycle using simple tools, like agriculture, fire, and harvesting of the environment humanity has been able to influence, then control the carbon cycle.
By way of increased population density and an increased carbon footprint the cycle of ice ages was broken, and there are several possible signatures of this in the vostok cores.
I will return to this idea once I have discussed the role of the lithosphere.
For the duration of the current temperature cycle(PALOGENE) the average C02 levels have been dominated by the state of the lithosphere. It can be inferred that at the start of the Paleocene, conditions were similar to that as shown in the vostok cores i.e. rapid cooling, long glacial cycles
and a trend towards snowball. Continental ice sheets must have been an inhibitor of normal tectonic processes, such that as a consequence large scale volcanic/basaltic provinces erupted over the subsequent 20 Myr and consequently atmospheric C02 and global temperature increased. Since
approximately 45 Myr the cycle has been predominantly negative with a pronounced step at the Oligocene mass extinction event/antarctic glaciation which was caused in part by a drop in atmospheric C02 due to a probable external forcing. For the final 15 Myr of the period, C02 and temperature levels have shown a steady decline probably due to low tectonic activity, but the amplitude of the milankovich variation has increased due to increased glaciation. The effect of increased glaciation can be seen in the 5 Myr graph of temperature.
There are many possible anthropogenic signatures in the Vostok record, firstly from approx 250 kyr the phase relationship between cause and effect became muddled. Secondly from approx 120 kyr the temperature and C02 rise appears to partially synchronize with the milankovitch cycle, aiding the forcing cycle, indeed both atmospheric C02 and temperature are higher than the preceding interglacial. Thirdly at 14 kyr, the C02 cycle evolved from an effect to a cause, at this point it became the predominant factor in global temperature maintaining approximately current temperature levels even though the insolation was declining. The Vostok temperature record for the
current period is inconclusive, although it shows temperature variations an order of magnitude smaller than the preceding periods, but there are records for the Holocene, which have subsequently been hidden which show an approximate damping signal for this period.
I will attempt to describe.
At the end of the last interglacial, radiative forcing was overcome by C02 forcing and the observed glacial termination is historically attested as the Younger Dryas. The temperature signal for this event and the subsequent maxima and minima show good correlation with a damped circuit.
The negative and positive lobes (in order) of this are attested historically as 1. Younger Dryas 12 kyr bp -5C , 2. Holocene Optimum 8 kyr bp +1.5C, Climate minima 6kyr bp -1.5C, Cretan optima 3700 bp +1C, Doric minima 3000 bp -1C, Roman maxima 2500 bp +0.8C, dark ages 1600 bp -0.8C,
MWP 900 bp +0.7C, LIA 400 bp -0.5C. All the dates and absolute temperatures are approximate .
Although I have argued that climate is measured over millennia these centennial scale variations are the key components of the global amplifier theory, and should provide the basis for the necessary mathematical rules.
Conclusions
The global thermal amplifier effect means that for good or ill humanity now controls the earths climate, but not currently its weather.
Current insolation is at a minima, which means that future temperature changes will be positive, but the amplifier effect can be controlled.
THE KEY MEASURE OF GLOBAL TEMPERATURE IS ATMOSPHERIC C02
Humans through Fuel extraction have replaced plate tectonics as the key driver of atmospheric C02 , but if we hadn’t our civilization would have vanished under ice 1200 yrs ago
Temperature graphs can be obtained from the 65 Myr record which will aid predictions of future global climate.
We can control the climate but we cannot control the weather.
In opposition to my assertion in the previous version of this theory, the C02/thermal capacitor is the ocean/atmosphere interaction, but the forcing regime is the atmosphere.
The Biosphere is the control mechanism, and humans have their hands on the thermostat, but currently we do not have the correct set of instructions
The solution is within our reach, but god help our children in the face of political corruption and corporate greed.
Mike Davies
Junceira
August 2010
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Hi – I am really glad to discover this. great job!
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It will be difficult to get concurrence as every body else is looking at ths problem in too great a detail, but if you want some idea of the overall arguments look at http://theresilientearth.com/?q=welcome-resilient-earth-web-site
My theory is based on 2 things, a nagging doubt about all the hysteria about AGW on the TV and in the press, and study of the articles about Milankovitch cycles on wikipedia. I found a graph on one of the US government websites (I can’t find it again) from an ice core which looks to me like the signature of a damped system from about 12000 bc to about 2000 bc. I have an unpublished paper in which I have tried to reproduce this graph. Basically I view the Holocene temperature record as a damped response to an inbalance in the climate system, this inbalance was caused by CO2 not following the downward temp trend as the last interglacial ended, and creating a forcing opposing this trend. The following temperature record is a bit like a spring which is extended and released.
The reason for this forcing is the spread of humans into North America
I have posted some of my comments on other sites
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