Testing a mathematical derivation of climate sensitivity

Testing a mathematical derivation of climate sensitivity

I aim to show that energy balance models which assume high equilibrium sensitivity
( A ) like the ones in the text overstate the sensitivity of the current climate state by a factor of 3-4 over an empirically derived sensitivity and that the sensitivity given below at ( B ) is more appropriate for the current CAGW debate.

Climate sensitivity to insolation changes appears to be 0.8 +/- 0.2 under ice-albedo
feedback, and exhibits highest sensitivity at the positive going transition stage. This sensitivity would give a temp rise for CO2 doubling in line with IPCC lower estimates.

ΔT=ΔF*λ = 3.7*0.8 +/-0.2 of ΔT = 2.95 +/- 0.8 °C with a range 2.2 – 3.7 °C ( A )

Conversely temperatures above the Tref = 0°C Vostok value indicate low sensitivity and
greater stability with an inferred sensitivity of      λ = 0.25 +/-0.05 ( B )

This would give a temp rise of 0.8°C +/- 0.2°C for a further doubling of CO2 to 800ppm

Mike Davies
Madmike@ https://madmikedavies.wordpress.com/

Junceira, Portugal

Full paper Testing a mathematical derivation of climate sensitivity

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Climate ‘Computer modelling’

The blogosphere is full of claims of bad science and data corruption in the climate change machine. Most of these claims are sound and CAGW is mostly discredited.

To confound the public and compound their errors and bad science billions of dollars have been spent on supercomputers and computer models which continually make alarmist predictions which are at odds with the empirical observations.

           The whole UN/IPCC proposals, claims and plans are built on this crumbling edifice. I came across the following quote which seems apt.

To Err is Human; To Really Foul Things Up Requires a Computer


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Humans, Fire and Evolution of the Biosphere

Humans, Fire and Evolution of the Biosphere.

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The Meaning of Life

A resposta para o sentido da vida = 42

I first came across this concept watching and reading the Hitch Hikers Guide to the Galaxy, and was intrigued by the answer. I have over the last 5 years investigated the obsession with Climate Change, and became obsessed myself, and now believe that I understand the Question to which the answer is 42 Rolling Eyes

Q       What is the Stochiometric Value of the fundamental chemical process of Life on earth in its simplest form, what is this chemical process and why is it the answer to the question

A1      42 is the Stochiometric Value associated with the reactants and products of the fundamental chemical process of life (total additive atomic no of the molecules)

A2      Complete combustion in its simplest form Methane + Oxygen gives Carbon Dioxide and Water…http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stoichiometry

Numerically    6+(4×1) + (2x8x2) = 6+(2×8) + 2((2×1)+8)=42..(10+32=22+20) Chemichally        CH4     +   2x O2   = CO2        +2x H2O

A3      This reversible process is the simplest representation of the terrestrial Carbon cycle http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_cycle

Conclusion the evolution of life on earth uses and is dependant on the terrestrial carbon cycle, and the values of CO2 and H2O in the atmosphere are fundamental to life. The biosphere has operated as a carbon sink for much of earths history, such that the atmosphere is seriously depleted in CO2 compared to historical levels, the fundamental purpose of the evolution of human intelligence is to reverse this trend and remove CO2 from the lithosphere, where residence times are measured in millenia  . Unlike the H2O cycle which has short residence times the long residence time of carbon in the lithosphere has had a cooling effect which lead to the last glaciation.

Humans have evolved to burn fuel and recycle the atmospheric greenhouse and return climate norms to Miocene levels.

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Free Will, Energy, and Climate Change the Paradox

I have for 4 years followed the discussions about climate, and as a lay person have had great difficulty in making my voice heard above the clamouring of claim and counter claim.

In this post I wish to explore the paradox of free will and climate change.

Much has been made of the mastery of the environment by ‘MAN’, but in truth humans live in a closed system and any apparent free will is constrained by this system. Much has also been made of the use of ‘FREE’ energy, to replace our use of fossil fuels, solar/wind energy being holy grails of the environmental movement.

Because the earth is a closed system, the choices for heat and light are constrained. We either use ‘free’ solar/wind/tidal/hydro energy, nuclear energy, or fossil fuels

But at its most fundamental level all these sources are nuclear energy, or gravitational energy, 2 of the fundamental components of our Solar System. At its most fundamental level our climate is driven by these same 2 energy sources.

Fossil fuels are the product of and the storage of solar energy by the internal biological and geological processes of this closed system, over millennia. We had no choice over the source of our energy for most of our evolution, except in the most rudimentary sense (coal or wood,/ash or oak/oil or gas) . We had no choice but to use this readily available energy supply


I believe that we evolved to recycle this available energy, in the process of obtaining this energy we also recycled fossil CO2,  but this outcome was also constrained by the system. We needed the energy to overcome the vagaries of the climate, and the earth needed the CO2 to also overcome the vagaries of the climate. There seems to be a theme developing here.


We freely developed and used systems and materials and liberated energy and CO2 that had been stored by the system, but these were the only products that the system would allow us to release, in any meaningful quantities. In our quest to exercise our free will all we did was act as a dumb agent of the system, and ultimately renewed the climate, for the benefit of all LIFE.


Part of the system. we are only the agent of liberation, just as in the past the biosphere was the agent of sequestration, We evolved to use this energy and paradoxically save the world.

Mad Mike


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All I need is the Air that I Breathe

The current composition of the atmosphere is as a result of CO2 breathing organisms (plants and bacteria) and is composed primarily of a neutral molecule N2 and a POISON. This POISON is O2, and is a waste product of photosynthesis. The evolution of higher lifeforms was a response to the pollution of the atmosphere by early life.

Oxygen breathing life evolved to utilise this waste product and balance the atmosphere. Nevertheless, the CO2 breathing lifeforms have been winning the war of waste products and slowly poisoning themselves. Humans are the final link in the chain, our evolutionary purpose is to change the balance of power, and reverse the trend of lower CO2. We need to release fossil CO2 to the atmosphere so that the cycle of life can continue.

Mad Mike

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Evolution and Intelligence

 The model I have devised has CO2, CH4, O2 and Insolation in balance, the primary function of evolution in the biosphere has been to influence the composition of the atmosphere. Because of this even small unbalances of the ratio of atmospheric gases can have momentous consequences. NEVERTHELESS the principle function of human intelligence has been to overcome the ice ages. ICE AGES have been an anomoly, continental ice sheets amplify negative temperature trends due to ALBEDO, and rapid fluctuations of 10 degC have been evident over the last 400,000 years. If a small but continuous trend in CO2 output by Homo Sapiens over the last 50,000 yrs has been able to rebalance the thermal budget of the earth, and negated the effect of ALBEDO, then it folows that human civilisation can flourish, the follow on effects due to advanced intelligence, have led to
   1. The neolithic farming revolution
   2. Early Civilisations
   3. Empires
   4. The Industrial revolution
   5. The scientific revolution.

THE INITIAL CONDITIONS which allowed humans to overcome nature gave us a brain that allowed us to develop modern society and science.

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The Triumph of Evolution revisited

I am in the process of writing a fuller version of the post below.

The Triumph of Evolution.

I’ve got through 9 Billion years of evolution so far

Triumph3-Mike Davies-signed

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Calibration of the Climate

Much use has been made of Climate Models by the scientific community, this has led to many predictions and consensus estimates. As an engineer who has delivered many communication products but particularly microwave radio links I understand the value of calibration charts.

The paleoclimate studies have supplied us with just such a calibrartion chart see Wikipedia for info

These two graphs compiled after years of investigation of the climate record provide both a more accurate record of historic climate and future climate changes. A baseline measurement of current average global temperature applied to these ‘calibration charts’ indicate very low climate sensitivity, and low thermal response of the climate system.

They also indicate that going forward temperature fluctuations will be driven by insolation, NOT CO2

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The Climate Change Con Trick, Lies, damned lies, and statistics

Lies, damned lies, and statistics

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

“Lies, damned lies, and statistics” is a phrase describing the persuasive power of numbers, particularly the use of statistics to bolster weak arguments. It is also sometimes colloquially used to doubt statistics used to prove an opponent’s point.

The term was popularised in the United States by Mark Twain (among others), who attributed it to the 19th-century British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli (1804–1881): “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” However, the phrase is not found in any of Disraeli’s works and the earliest known appearances were years after his death. Other coiners have therefore been proposed, and the phrase is often attributed to Twain himself.

Arguments on both sides of the AGW debate quote scientific research, statistics, graphs and trends. I have been studying this subject for 4+ years, and have a background which includes the study of some of the scientific fundamentals. The conclusion that I have reached is that most modern studies confuse statistics with truth.

Without the help of mankind and the scientific method the atmosphere and climate have slowly (extremely slowly) (+/- 5 C per billion years) evolved to the point where the biosphere is a single functioning entity (see GAIA). Despite claims to the contrary we are an integral part of this system. We are part of the feedback system of the climate, the precautionary principle in regard to human endeavours is used as a blunt tool to force change and progress to meet esoteric (NO HARM) targets. But fear not the system has its own checks and balances, for all the harm progress appears to be making there are negative feedbacks, all will be well in the end.

All the current research and stats will achieve is a new way to TAX/Control the individual, throw off the yoke of the UN oppressor and tell your politicians enough is enough.

For the info of the reader, I live a greenish life in retirement, and disagree with much of the profligate waste of our current society, but the IPCC is wrong CO2 is not the enemy of life ICE is.



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